Covid third wave may hit India in August, peak in September: SBI report
SRINAGAR, JULY 06 : The second wave of Covid-19 in India was just slowing down that the fears of the third wave have raised concerns. A recent new report has feared that the third wave of Covid may start by mid-August and its peak may come in September.
In the latest report of SBI, it has been estimated that in the second week of July, the Covid cases in India may drop to around 10,000, but the infection will increase by the second a fortnight of August.
SBI Research’s published report ‘Covid-19: The Race to the Finishing Line’ states that vaccination is the only way to avoid it, as global data shows that on average, third-wave cases peak at the time of second wave. is about 1.7 times.
In India only 4.6 per cent of the population has been fully vaccinated, while 20.8 per cent have received a single dose, which is the US (47.1 per cent), UK (48.7 per cent), Israel (59.8 per cent), Spain (38.5 per cent), France ( 31.2) is much less than in other countries.
According to the report, Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, State Bank of India, said, “India has achieved its second wave peak on May 7 and according to the current data, the second week of July may see around 10,000 cases.” “
“However, based on historical trends, cases may start increasing by the second fortnight of August 21 and the peak may be observed a month later.”
The current Covid cases are now hovering around 45,000 since last week, which shows that the devastating second wave is “not over yet in the country”.
“Even in the first wave, there was a gradual decline in cases, with around 45,000 cases reported for 21 days before any meaningful drop in daily cases,” Ghosh said.
Apart from this, 51 cases of Delta Plus variant have been detected so far from 12 states. New cases in the top 15 districts, which are mostly urban, increased again in June. But it is a matter of relief that their death rate is stable for three months. On the other hand, the share of rural districts in new cases is refusing to decrease significantly since July 2020, when it exceeded 45% and has fluctuated since then.
India has started giving more than 40 lakh vaccination doses daily. The report said that states such as Rajasthan, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Kerala and Uttarakhand have already given both vaccines to a large percentage of the population above 60 years, but the total vaccination in rural areas is low.
Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Bihar and Jharkhand have a small proportion of people above 45 years of age who have been vaccinated. It has been said in the report that these states need to pick up the pace in vaccination.
The delta strain has been detected in the US, UK, China, Japan, Poland, Portugal, Russia and Switzerland, which wreaked havoc in India for the second time in April and May. It is the predominant form in the UK and is responsible for 95% of cases.
Citing the example of countries like the UK and Israel, which have had a large number of vaccinations, Ghosh said, “No one can be completely safe even after getting the vaccine.” It is necessary to follow other measures like masks, social distancing and covid rules. (PTK)
